CDL Season Preview Series: Columbus Blue Jackets

The Cycle Down Low Season Preview is a feature where we look at the chances for your favourite team in the 2011-2012 NHL campaign.  AND WE’RE GOING TO VEGAS!  With the new season upon us, a mere 30 days away, the CDL Season Preview Series will take you right up to game one of the new season.  Is this the year they surprise everyone and take the Cup?  Are the great expectations placed upon them too much?  Here you’ll get the scoop on what is to come for every team from both the Eastern and Western Conferences.  The breakdown will list the teams in six categories: Stanley Cup Odds (the actual odds from Bodog.ca and a breakdown of what you can expect), Lock (the best bet or biggest star on the team), Upset (the bust or player that won’t preform as well as many think), Pit Bosses (front office), Payout (the overall summary of the team), and CDL Bet (our bet at what the results will be for the team this year).

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STANLEY CUP ODDS: 75/1

In 2009, the Columbus Blue Jackets became the last of the four expansion teams to make the Stanley Cup playoffs.  The 8th place finish, however, set them up for a battle against the ever powerful Detroit Red Wings.  The Wings, the Western Conference’s top ranked squad, made quick work of the Jackets defeating them in four games, sweeping the series and sending Ohio’s NHL franchise packing.

However, for Jackets fans it seemed their fate was about to change.  Rookie goaltender Steve Mason played outstanding, carrying a heavy workload between the pipes for the Jackets.  Mason’s record of 33-20-7 with 10 shutouts was enough to earn him the Calder Trophy and a Vezina Trophy nomination.

The Columbus Blue Jackets have only tasted the playoffs once. Could this year be a possibility?

If there can be anything said about the Jackets up until that point, it was that their weakest position was easily goaltending and now they had a legitimate starter.

But, as is often the case, the sophomore slump hit Mason hard.  Since his breakout season in his rookie campaign, he has been unable to recapture that magic.  In the last two years, his combined record has been 44-47-16 with a .901SV% and GAA over 3.00, a far cry from the .916SV% and 2.29 GAA he posted in his first season.

To go along with the Jackets inability to remain stable in goal, they were forever searching for a legitimate top-line center to play along perennial all-star Rick Nash.

Nash, the Jackets first round pick — first overall in his draft year — in 2002, has been the face of the franchise since his arrival.  With a combination of size, speed, and strength, Nash is the prototypical power forward.  Think Eric Lindros without the concussion or injury issues, and you have Nash.

It is because of Nash that the Jackets are ever even spoken in the same breath as contenders, but with hockey being the ultimate team game that it is, it is impossible and improbable to believe that Nash himself could carry this team to a championship.

Bringing in the likes Antoine Vermette, Kristian Huselius, R.J. Umberger, and with Scott Howson’s smart drafting and the blossoming of top draft pick Derrick Brassard, the Jackets seem to have begun to take that turn towards consistent competitiveness.  But are they there quite yet?

LOCK

It’s too easy to say Rick Nash because, honestly, the guy is a beast.  On a team with a legitimate center and someone to support him, Nash would be a household name and one of the game’s brightest stars.

So instead, I’ll go with Jeff Carter. Hey, it’s not Nash, right?

Remember how I said that Nash needed a legitimate center?  Well, Howson went and got him one this off-season.  A 40-goal scorer, young, talented, and proven that he can do it, Carter is everything that Howson was after and more.

Jeff Carter is GM Scott Howson's most prized pickup this off-season

Jettisoned from Philadelphia by Paul Holmgren and Peter Laviolette, Carter took a few days off before meeting the Columbus media, but he seems like he is ready to go this year.

At only 26, Carter is signed to a 13-year contract that will see him, most likely, end his career as a Jacket.  Unless the team moves or Carter demands a trade out of town, there is a good chance that the Buckeye state will be Carter’s home until he retires.

The Carter and Nash combination has been seen on a world scale, the two often teaming up on a line for Team Canada at the World Championships, a tournament that Nash has been to far too often.  Together in Columbus, with Umberger flanking them on the right wing, Carter and Nash will look to bring that magic to the Nationwide Arena.

Carter is a mortal lock — barring injury — to put up at least sixty points.  Not only that, he will improve their power play from an abysmal 14% clip to somewhere in the 20s, one would have to hope.

All said and done, Carter’s impact on the Blue Jackets will surely be felt this year.

BUST 

Up to this point the focus of the bust section has been reserved for forwards but in Columbus’ case, it’s on the back end.

Kris Russell was drafted in the third round of the 2005 draft by the Jackets, and it was thought that he would be their top pairing defenseman for years.  That just hasn’t been the case.

Coming out of the WHL where he played for the Medicine Hat Tigers, Russell was nearly a point per game player.  The rough and tumble nature of the WHL gave Russell an edge, too, something the Jackets believed they could use coming from the point.

However, Russell hasn’t panned out to be that player for the Jackets.

His point production, at the top end, has capped out in the low 20s, and that’s only looking like it will continue to go downward.

With the addition of James Wisniewski to the teams defense corps it seems as though Russell’s spot on the top power play unit is not only gone, but long forgotten.  He may get to play on the back end along side Wisniewski, but chances are he will be relegated to the second unit and asked to be the QB there.

Not the best of gigs, but Russell will be dying for the minutes and the opportunity to reestablish himself as a force on the point.  Chances are that he will be far from that, continuing his fall from the good graces of the Columbus management staff.

PIT BOSSES

In his second year head coach Scott Arniel is looking to finally get the team together and playing as well as Scott Howson has built it.

Last season’s record, 34-35-13, was a disappointment just two seasons removed from a playoff berth.  Bringing in Arniel was supposed to be the move to get the team back into contention, and the 24th place finish was far from what the fans in Ohio had expected.

It’s hard to blame either Howson or Arniel for the continuing struggles of Steve Mason, which has been a great factor in the team’s struggles, but the inability to play a defensive system that can benefit their shortcomings in goal hasn’t helped much either.  Be it players not buying into the system being coached, their inability to play within the system, or just the fact that his system isn’t translating well to the NHL after his tenure in the AHL, Arniel has to look to make some changes to the way he is setting his team up on the ice.

As for Howson there is very few negative things you can say about a man who just completely retooled his team and filled out exactly what the teams needs were.

Their drafting may not have been the greatest in the past, but it seems that they have turned the corner in that regard.  Brassard, Mason, Matt Calvert, and Ryan Johansen have all been drafted within the last five years, a sure fire sign that times are changing in Ohio.

PAYOUT

As a whole, the team has almost completely turned over from last year.  Gone are Jakub Voracek, Nikita Filatov, Scottie Upshall, Jan Hejda, Mike Commodore, and late-season acquisition Sami Lepisto, and in come Carter, Johansen, Prospal, Wisniewski, and Radek Martinek.  That’s an eleven player turnover.

As briefly mentioned in the BUST section about Russell, James Wisniewski completely reshapes their defense.  Although he may not be a top-tier D-man, Wiz is definitely good enough to put up somewhere in the range of 40-50 points.  Not bad for a guy who has travelled enough in the last few years to make even Mike Sillinger’s travel agent of choice jealous.

A powerful shot from the point, he can blow pucks past opposition shot blockers and goaltenders, and as long as that is the only thing he is blowing and not his defensive coverage, you can guarantee that his average ice-time from last season will stay up around the 23 minutes it was at last season.

Howson bringing in Prospal gives the offense a new look even on top of the Carter trade.  Prospal can easily slot in on the top two lines, even further legitimizing the offense in Columbus.  It’s hard to think of a Columbus offense that doesn’t struggle, but this could actually be the year.

The questions on the wing are still there in some sense, but they’re not bad enough that one could even conceive a Blue Jackets team that finishes 24th in total offense again.  This is a mid-range offense, at the very least.

The achilles heel of this team may just be the goaltending, something that no one wants to see happen again.  Steve Mason has begun to hear whispers of Raycroft, something that Columbus fans hope is not the case.  If he gets back on track this season, Columbus could actually make some noise in the Central Division and the Western Conference.

CDL BET

Columbus Blue Jackets: 4th in the Central Division, 8th in the Western Conference

Record: 43-31-8

Top Point Scorer:  Rick Nash — 42G – 35A – 77P

Bold Prediction:  Ryan Johansen not only makes the team but he wins Rookie of the Year.

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